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Environmental systems, social justice, public health, and economic prosperity are all connected. A crisis in any one of those complex areas affects all of them. Sometimes the challenges seem so daunting that we struggle to find hope. But improvement in any area can cause positive change in the others, too. The lessons in Now What? guide students and their teachers to use systems thinking tools and principles to identify connections between the natural environment and human society. Systems thinking encourages asking good questions and finding leverage points for implementing successful strategies. What’s changing? How are things changing? Why? Now what?
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Kimde: Gaye Ceyhan
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This book approaches economic problems from a systems thinking and feedback perspective. By introducing system dynamics methods (including qualitative and quantitative techniques) and computer simulation models, the respective contributions apply feedback analysis and dynamic simulation modeling to important local, national, and global economics issues and concerns. Topics covered include: an introduction to macro modeling using a system dynamics framework; a system dynamics translation of the Phillips machine; a re-examination of classical economic theories from a feedback perspective; analyses of important social, ecological, and resource issues; the development of a biophysical economics module for global modelling; contributions to monetary and financial economics; analyses of macroeconomic growth, income distribution and alternative theories of well-being; and a re-examination of scenario macro modeling. The contributions also examine the philosophical differences between the economics and system dynamics communities in an effort to bridge existing gaps and compare methods. Many models and other supporting information are provided as online supplementary files. Consequently, the book appeals to students and scholars in economics, as well as to practitioners and policy analysts interested in using systems thinking and system dynamics modeling to understand and improve economic systems around the world. "Clearly, there is much space for more collaboration between the advocates of post-Keynesian economics and system dynamics! More generally, I would like to recommend this book to all scholars and practitioners interested in exploring the interface and synergies between economics, system dynamics, and feedback thinking."
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Kimde: Emre Göktepe
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The first textbook on systems thinking written for a broad audience, and now updated for the modern reader, Systems 1 is a perfect introduction to the complex systems that make up the world around us. Originally written in 1980, it has remained a classic and a mainstay of workshops and classrooms around the world for 40 years. It has been used in courses for gifted middle schoolers as well as graduate programs. It is the introductory text in Roadmaps, the MIT course on systems theory for educators, and has been incorporated into many business and military training programs. The Chinese translation of the 3rd edition is also widely available. The book begins with a basic summary of systems theory, and proceeds through simple steps to help the reader understand some of the more complex systems that we deal with every day. It concludes with “Kauffman’s Rules,” 30 proverbs that every systems thinker needs to know. The 4th edition has been completely updated, including an entirely new chapter on exponential growth.
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Kimde: Emre Göktepe
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This book allows the reader to acquire step-by-step in a time-efficient and uncomplicated the knowledge in the formation and construction of dynamic models using Vensim. Many times, the models are performed with minimal current data and very few historical data, the simulation models that the student will design in this course accommodate these analyses, with the construction of realistic hypotheses and elaborate behavior models. That's done with the help of software Vensim that helps the construction of the models as well as performing model simulations. At the end of the book, the reader is able to: - Describe the components of a complex system. - Diagnose the natural evolution of the system under analysis. - Create a model of the system and present it using the simulation software. - Carry out simulations with the model, in order to predict the behavior of the system.
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Kimde: Emre Göktepe
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Systems thinking can help us solve everyday and wicked problems, increase our personal effectiveness as human beings, and transform our organizations. This book is for anyone interested in learning the foundational ideas of systems thinking. SIMPLE RULES OF SYSTEMS THINKING Systems Thinking Made Simple doesn't mean that we're going to oversimplify it like a ... for Dummies book. It means that we will show how systems thinking emerges when we focus on a simple set of rules. After years of searching for unifying principles, many experts and practitioners in the field of systems thinking have embraced DSRP as universal to all systems thinking methods. Originally a complex mathematical formulation, DSRP has since been made more accessible through powerful modeling and visualization tools. There are two surprising things about our new understanding of systems thinking. First is how simple the four rules are: DISTINCTIONS RULE: Any idea or thing can be distinguished from the other ideas or things it is with SYSTEMS RULE: Any idea or thing can be split into parts or lumped into a whole RELATIONSHIP RULE: Any idea or thing can relate to other things or ideas PERSPECTIVES RULE: Any thing or idea can be the point or the view of a perspective.
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Kimde: Gaye Ceyhan
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As the complexity of our world increases systems thinking is emerging as a critical factor for success, and even survival. How then can people become skilled systems thinkers? The most effective learning experiences combine experience with reflection, theory with practice. Traditionally, theory was taught in school and university, and experience was gained in life outside those walls. But in the world of complex dynamic systems such as a business, society, or ecosystem, everyday experience fails because the time horizon and scope of the systems is so vast-we never experience the majority of the effects of our decisions. And without relevant experience, theory is uninteresting to students. The old ways of learning fail. When experiments in the real world are impossible, simulation becomes the main way we can learn effectively about the dynamics of complex systems. For this reason I'm pleased to introduce Juan Martin Garcia's book 'Theory and Practical Exercises of System Dynamics'. Juan combines theory and practice, experience and opportunities for reflection, so that newcomers to the field can learn for themselves how complex dynamic systems work. The examples span a range of important economic and social issues, from the aging of the population in developed economies to the course of contagious diseases to the accumulation of pollutants in the environment; everyone will find some examples here of direct personal interest. The modeling exercises guide the learner through the process of building a working simulation; students will not only learn about the issues addressed, and in the use of state of the art simulation software, but will develop skill in the modeling process. Juan has written a delightful first introduction to the field of system dynamics and complexity, and provides a much-needed addition to the literature available.
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Kimde: Emre Göktepe
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This book, a collection of 9 recent papers, is a follow-up to Homer's 2012 book, "Models That Matter". The first three chapters were previously published as individual journal articles and are on issues of system dynamics methodology. The other six chapters have not been previously published. Four describe models developed for clients on health policy issues: hospital-acquired infections, Medicare reimbursement rates, child stunting in the developing world, and Hepatitis C. Another chapter is about human psychology, presenting a model of achievement and satisfaction over the course of an individual's life. The final chapter presents a model of the system dynamics field itself, tracing its historical growth from 1984 to the present and looking to the future.
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Kimde: Emre Göktepe
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Advocates and teachers often find it difficult to communicate the complexities of climate change, because the people they are trying to reach hold so many mistaken assumptions. They assume, for example, that when climate change becomes an obvious threat to our everyday lives, there will still be time enough to make changes that will avoid disaster. Yet at that point it will be too late. Or they assume we can use our current paradigms and policy tools to find solutions. Yet the approaches that caused damage in the first place will cause even more damage in the future. Even the increasingly dire warnings from scientists haven’t shaken such assumptions. Is there another way to reach people? The simple, interactive exercises in The Climate Change Playbook can help citizens better understand climate change, diagnose its causes, anticipate its future consequences, and effect constructive change. Adapted from The Systems Thinking Playbook, the twenty-two games are now specifically relevant to climate-change communications and crafted for use by experts, advocates, and educators. Illustrated guidelines walk leaders through setting each game up, facilitating it, and debriefing participants. Users will find games that are suitable for a variety of audiences—whether large and seated, as in a conference room, or smaller and mobile, as in a workshop, seminar, or meeting. Designed by leading thinkers in systems, communications, and sustainability, the games focus on learning by doing.
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Kimde: Emre Göktepe
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Concrete guidance on how to incorporate systems thinking in problem solving, decision making, and strategic planning―for everyone! Donors, leaders of nonprofits, and public policy makers usually have the best of intentions to serve society and improve social conditions. But often their solutions fall far short of what they want to accomplish and what is truly needed. Moreover, the answers they propose and fund often produce the opposite of what they want over time. We end up with temporary shelters that increase homelessness, drug busts that increase drug-related crime, or food aid that increases starvation. How do these unintended consequences come about and how can we avoid them? By applying conventional thinking to complex social problems, we often perpetuate the very problems we try so hard to solve, but it is possible to think differently, and get different results. Systems Thinking for Social Change enables readers to contribute more effectively to society by helping them understand what systems thinking is and why it is so important in their work. It also gives concrete guidance on how to incorporate systems thinking in problem solving, decision making, and strategic planning without becoming a technical expert.
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Kimde: Emre Göktepe
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Insightful modelling of dynamic systems for better business strategy The business environment is constantly changing and organisations need the ability to rehearse alternative futures. By mimicking the interlocking operations of firms and industries, modelling serves as a ‘dry run’ for testing ideas, anticipating consequences, avoiding strategic pitfalls and improving future performance. Strategic Modelling and Business Dynamics is an essential guide to credible models; helping you to understand modelling as a creative process for distilling and communicating those factors that drive business success and sustainability. Written by an internationally regarded authority, the book covers all stages of model building, from conceptual to analytical. The book demonstrates a range of in-depth practical examples that vividly illustrate important or puzzling dynamics in firm operations, strategy, public policy, and everyday life. This updated new edition also offers a rich Learners' website with models, articles and videos, as well as a separate Instructors' website resource, with lecture slides and other course materials (see Related Websites/Extra section below). Together the book and websites deliver a powerful package of blended learning materials that: Introduce the system dynamics approach of modelling strategic problems in business and society Include industry examples and public sector applications with interactive simulators and contemporary visual modelling software Provide the latest state-of-the-art thinking, concepts and techniques for systems modelling The comprehensive Learners' website features models, microworlds, journal articles and videos. Easy-to-use simulators enable readers to experience dynamic complexity in business and society. Like would-be CEOs, readers can re-design operations and then re-simulate in the quest for well-coordinated strategy and better performance. The simulators include a baffling hotel shower, a start-up low-cost airline, an international radio broadcaster, a diversifying tyre maker, commercial fisheries and the global oil industry.
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Kimde: Emre Göktepe
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Community Based System Dynamics introduces researchers and practitioners to the design and application of participatory systems modeling with diverse communities. The book bridges community- based participatory research methods and rigorous computational modeling approaches to understanding communities as complex systems. It emphasizes the importance of community involvement both to understand the underlying system and to aid in implementation. Comprehensive in its scope, the volume includes topics that span the entire process of participatory systems modeling, from the initial engagement and conceptualization of community issues to model building, analysis, and project evaluation. Community Based System Dynamics is a highly valuable resource for anyone interested in helping to advance social justice using system dynamics, community involvement, and group model building, and helping to make communities a better place.
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Kimde: Emre Göktepe
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Forty years ago, The Limits to Growth study addressed the grand question of how humans would adapt to the physical limitations of planet Earth. It predicted that during the first half of the 21st century the ongoing growth in the human ecological footprint would stop-either through catastrophic "overshoot and collapse"-or through well-managed "peak and decline." So, where are we now? And what does our future look like? In the book 2052, Jorgen Randers, one of the coauthors of Limits to Growth, issues a progress report and makes a forecast for the next forty years. To do this, he asked dozens of experts to weigh in with their best predictions on how our economies, energy supplies, natural resources, climate, food, fisheries, militaries, political divisions, cities, psyches, and more will take shape in the coming decades. He then synthesized those scenarios into a global forecast of life as we will most likely know it in the years ahead. The good news: we will see impressive advances in resource efficiency, and an increasing focus on human well-being rather than on per capita income growth. But this change might not come as we expect. Future growth in population and GDP, for instance, will be constrained in surprising ways-by rapid fertility decline as result of increased urbanization, productivity decline as a result of social unrest, and continuing poverty among the poorest 2 billion world citizens. Runaway global warming, too, is likely. So, how do we prepare for the years ahead? With heart, fact, and wisdom, Randers guides us along a realistic path into the future and discusses what readers can do to ensure a better life for themselves and their children during the increasing turmoil of the next forty years.
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Kimde: Filiz Güler
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What can be done about workaholic burnout? Why do new medical products get underused or overused? Under what conditions does antibiotic resistance become rampant? How can we better balance public health priorities for preventing and treating diabetes and cardiovascular disease? What types of policies are essential for effective health care reform? These questions and more are explored in this collection of sixteen journal articles written or co-written by Jack Homer, an award-winning and internationally recognized expert in system dynamics policy modeling, who has developed models for a variety of private and public organizations from the 1980s to the present. Some of the articles explore the models in detail, while others step back to offer general thoughts on methodology and the central question of how to approach modeling with both rigor and practicality.
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Kimde: Emre Göktepe
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A new edition of the groundbreaking book that brings organizational learning and systems thinking into classrooms and schools, showing how to keep our nation’s educational system competitive in today’s world. Revised and updated - with more than 100 pages of new material – for the first time since its initial publication in 2000 comes a new edition of the seminal work acclaimed as one of the best books ever written about education and schools. A unique collaboration between the celebrated management thinker and Fifth Discipline author Peter Senge and a team of renowned educators and organizational change leaders, Schools that Learn describes how schools can adapt, grow, and change in the face of the demands and challenges of our society, and provides tools, techniques and references for bringing those aspirations to life. The new revised and updated edition offers practical advice for overcoming the many challenges that face our communities and educational systems today. It shows teachers, administrators, students, parents and community members how to successfully use principles of organizational learning, including systems thinking and shared vision, to address the challenges that face our nation's schools. In a fast-changing world where school populations are increasingly diverse, children live in ever-more-complex social and media environments, standardized tests are applied as overly simplistic "quick fixes," and advances in science and technology continue to accelerate, the pressures on our educational system are inescapable. Schools That Learn offers a much-needed way to open dialogue about these problems – and provides pragmatic opportunities to transform school systems into learning organizations.
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Kimde: Emre Göktepe
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Since it was introduced to the English-speaking world in 1962, Lev Vygotsky's Thought and Language has become recognized as a classic foundational work of cognitive science. Its 1962 English translation must certainly be considered one of the most important and influential books ever published by the MIT Press. In this highly original exploration of human mental development, Vygotsky analyzes the relationship between words and consciousness, arguing that speech is social in its origins and that only as children develop does it become internalized verbal thought. In 1986, the MIT Press published a new edition of the original translation by Eugenia Hanfmann and Gertrude Vakar, edited by Vygotsky scholar Alex Kozulin, that restored the work's complete text and added materials to help readers better understand Vygotsky's thought. Kozulin also contributed an introductory essay that offered new insight into Vygotsky's life, intellectual milieu, and research methods. This expanded edition offers Vygotsky's text, Kozulin's essay, a subject index, and a new foreword by Kozulin that maps the ever-growing influence of Vygotsky's ideas.
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Kimde: Emre Göktepe
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The lessons in Dollars and Sense challenge students to use systems thinking and mathematical tools to develop a realistic and personal understanding of the dynamics of the economic system in which we live.
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Kimde: Emre Göktepe
Kitaplar şimdilik yalnızca Sistem Düşüncesi Derneği üyelerine gönderilebiliyor.
This book has become a favorite of K–12 teachers, university faculty, and corporate consultants. It provides short gaming exercises that illustrate the subtleties of systems thinking. The companion DVD shows the authors introducing and running each of the thirty games. The thirty games are classified by these areas of learning: Systems Thinking, Mental Models, Team Learning, Shared Vision, and Personal Mastery. Each description clearly explains when, how, and why the game is useful. There are explicit instructions for debriefing each exercise as well as a list of all required materials. A summary matrix has been added for a quick glance at all thirty games. When you are in a hurry to find just the right initiative for some part of your course, the matrix will help you find it. Linda Booth Sweeney and Dennis Meadows both have many years of experience in teaching complex concepts. This book reflects their insights. Every game works well and provokes a deep variety of new insights about paradigms, system boundaries, causal-loop diagrams, reference modes, and leverage points. Each of the thirty exercises here was tested and refined many times until it became a reliable source of learning. Some of the games are adapted from classics of the outdoor education field. Others are completely new. But all of them complement readings and lectures to help participants understand intuitively the principles of systems thinking. Kitapta anlatılan 30 oyunun tanıtım videolarına buraya tıklayarak ulaşabilirsiniz.
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Kimde: Gaye Ceyhan
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In his acclaimed book―based on his legendary Harvard course―Sandel offers a rare education in thinking through the complicated issues and controversies we face in public life today. It has emerged as a most lucid and engaging guide for those who yearn for a more robust and thoughtful public discourse. "In terms we can all understand," wrote Jonathan Rauch in The New York Times, Justice "confronts us with the concepts that lurk . . . beneath our conflicts." Affirmative action, same-sex marriage, physician-assisted suicide, abortion, national service, the moral limits of markets―Sandel relates the big questions of political philosophy to the most vexing issues of the day, and shows how a surer grasp of philosophy can help us make sense of politics, morality, and our own convictions as well. Justice is lively, thought-provoking, and wise―an essential new addition to the small shelf of books that speak convincingly to the hard questions of our civic life.
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Kimde: Emre Göktepe
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Connected Wisdom: Living Stories About Living Systems gathers twelve stories from different cultures that each reveal a unique example of a "living system." Through them, Linda Booth Sweeney shows that what we now call systems thinking has been around for a very long time.
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Kimde: Burcu Güngör Cabbar
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A multitude of complex systems and actors pursuing their own agenda shape the dynamics of our world. Better understanding of their actions and interactions is crucial, and can be achieved by a profound knowledge of systems and their properties, and their representation in models allowing simulation of probable behavior. Drawing on his extensive research and teaching experience in modeling and simulation of a wide range of systems - from engineering to social systems and ecosystems - the author presents the fundamental concepts and approaches for understanding and modeling the complex systems shaping the dynamics of our world. The book applies state space analysis and system dynamics to deal with the dynamic processes of "causal systems", discusses information processing approaches for modeling decision processes of "actors" and "agents", and uses aspects of the coevolutionary development of systems in their environment to deal with normative orientation, ethics, and evaluation of policies and long-term development. The concepts are applied in particular to the issue of sustainable development of human society in an evolving world. The book is complemented by a survey of system topics and of models from many fields, and by an extensive bibliography on the many systems-related subjects covered. Hartmut Bossel is Professor Emeritus of environmental systems analysis. He taught for many years at the University of California in Santa Barbara and the University of Kassel, Germany, where he was director of the Center for Environmental Systems Research until his retirement. He holds an engineering degree from the Technical University of Darmstadt, and a Ph.D. degree from the University of California at Berkeley. With a background in engineering, systems science, and mathematical modeling, he has led many research projects and future studies in different countries, developing computer simulation models and decision support systems in the areas of energy supply policy, global
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Kimde: Emre Göktepe
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Thinking in Systems is a concise and crucial book offering insight for problem solving on scales ranging from the personal to the global using systems thinking. Edited by the Sustainability Institute’s Diana Wright, this essential primer brings systems thinking out of the realm of computers and equations and into the tangible world, showing readers how to develop the systems-thinking skills that thought leaders across the globe consider critical for 21st-century life.
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Kimde: Emre Göktepe
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Strategic Management Dynamics builds on, and goes substantially beyond the existing strategy textbooks with its focus on understanding and managing how organisations perform over time. Based on simple but powerful underlying principles, the book both lays out a comprehensive approach to strategy analysis, design and delivery, and connects with established frameworks in the field. In Strategic Management Dynamics Kim Warren provides a valuable teaching resource, which can be used as a core textbook to bring strategy to life. With numerous examples from different sectors, the book is supported by a rich variety of simulation-based learning materials that are essential if strategy principles are to be experienced, rather than just discussed.
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Kimde: Emre Göktepe
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Legendary psychologist Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi's famous investigations of "optimal experience" have revealed that what makes an experience genuinely satisfying is a state of consciousness called flow. During flow, people typically experience deep enjoyment, creativity, and a total involvement with life. In this new edition of his groundbreaking classic work, Csikszentmihalyi ("the leading researcher into ‘flow states’" —Newsweek) demonstrates the ways this positive state can be controlled, not just left to chance. Flow: The Psychology of Optimal Experience teaches how, by ordering the information that enters our consciousness, we can discover true happiness, unlock our potential, and greatly improve the quality of our lives.
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Kimde: Emre Göktepe
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Buckminster Fuller (1895–1983) was an architect, engineer, geometrician, cartographer, philosopher, futurist, inventor of the famous geodesic dome, and one of the most brilliant thinkers of his time. For more than five decades, he set forth his comprehensive perspective on the world’s problems in numerous essays, which offer an illuminating insight into the intellectual universe of this renaissance man. These texts remain surprisingly topical even today, decades after their initial publication. While Fuller wrote the works in the 1960’s and 1970’s, they could not be more timely: like desperately needed time-capsules of wisdom for the critical moment he foresaw, and in which we find ourselves. Long out of print, they are now being published again, together with commentary by Jaime Snyder, the grandson of Buckminster Fuller. Designed for a new generation of readers, Snyder prepared these editions with supplementary material providing background on the texts, factual updates, and interpretation of his visionary ideas. Initially published in 1969, and one of Fuller’s most popular works, Operating Manual for Spaceship Earth is a brilliant synthesis of his world view. In this very accessible volume, Fuller investigates the great challenges facing humanity, and the principles for avoiding extinction and “exercising our option to make it.” How will humanity survive? How does automation influence individualization? How can we utilize our resources more effectively to realize our potential to end poverty in this generation? He questions the concept of specialization, calls for a design revolution of innovation, and offers advice on how to guide “spaceship earth” toward a sustainable future.And it Came to Pass – Not to Stay brings together Buckminster Fuller’s lyrical and philosophical best, including seven “essays“ in a form he called his “ventilated prose”, and as always addressing the current global crisis and his predictions for the future. These essays, including “How Little I Know”, “What I am Trying to Do”, “Soft Revolution”, and “Ethics”, put the task of ushering in a new era of humanity in the context of “always starting with the universe.“ In rare form, Fuller elegantly weaves the personal, the playful, the simple, and the profound.
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Kimde: Emre Göktepe
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Mathematical modeling and computer simulation make it possible to understand and control the dynamic processes taking place in complex systems. Simulation provides insights into the often surprising diversity of possible behaviors, and allows identifying possibilities for intervention and options for alternative development. About one hundred simulation models from all areas of life are fully documented in the three volumes of the 'System Zoo'. They can be quickly implemented and easily operated using freely available system dynamics software. Volume 2 of the System Zoo contains simulation models of the regional water cycle and global carbon cycle, the photosynthesis of vegetation, forest growth, the water, nutrient, and energy dynamics of agriculture, the interaction of plants, animals, and humans with other organisms and resources by predation, harvesting, and competition for nutrients, and through utilization of renewable and exploitation of nonrenewable resources. The System Zoo collection of simulation models is particularly well-suited for teaching, training, and research projects at all levels from high school to university, and for individual study. Volume 1 of the System Zoo contains simulation models of elementary systems, and of systems from the fields of physics and engineering. Volume 3 deals with systems and processes found in economy and society, and with long-term global development.
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Kimde: Emre Göktepe
Kitaplar şimdilik yalnızca Sistem Düşüncesi Derneği üyelerine gönderilebiliyor.
Mathematical modeling and computer simulation make it possible to understand and control the dynamic processes taking place in complex systems. Simulation provides insights into the often surprising diversity of possible behaviors, and allows identifying possibilities for intervention and options for alternative development. About one hundred simulation models from all areas of life are fully documented in the three volumes of the 'System Zoo'. They can be quickly implemented and easily operated using freely available system dynamics software. Volume 1 of the System Zoo contains simulation models of elementary processes, and of complex systems from physics and engineering, among them: exponential and logistic growth, oscillations, delays, and storage; phenomena of infection, transition, and overload; complex systems with limit cycles, multiple equilibrium points and chaotic attractors; and applications from control engineering, flight dynamics, fluid flow and heat conduction. The System Zoo collection of simulation models is particularly well-suited for teaching, training, and research projects at all levels from high school to university, and for individual study. Volume 2 of the System Zoo contains simulation models related to climate, vegetation, ecosystems and resources. Volume 3 deals with systems and processes found in economy and society, and with long-term global development.
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Kimde: Emre Göktepe
Kitaplar şimdilik yalnızca Sistem Düşüncesi Derneği üyelerine gönderilebiliyor.
Mathematical modeling and computer simulation make it possible to understand and control the dynamic processes taking place in complex systems. Simulation provides insights into the often surprising diversity of possible behaviors, and allows identifying possibilities for intervention and options for alternative development. About one hundred simulation models from all areas of life are fully documented in the three volumes of the 'System Zoo'. They can be quickly implemented and easily operated using freely available system dynamics software. Volume 3 of the System Zoo contains simulation models of economic and social systems and global development, among them: production, stocks and orders, marketing and consumption, competition, life planning, employment, ecotax, escalation, dependence, aggression, population and community development, debt crisis, globalization, the world models of the Club of Rome (by Forrester and the Meadows group) and examples of nonnumerical knowledge processing applied to impact assessment and decision processes. The System Zoo collection of simulation models is particularly well-suited for teaching, training, and research projects at all levels from high school to university, and for individual study. Volume 1 of the System Zoo contains simulation models of elementary systems, and of systems from the fields of physics and engineering. Volume 2 of the System Zoo presents simulation models related to climate, vegetation, ecosystems and resources.
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Kimde: Emre Göktepe
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Diana Fisher's Modeling Dynamic Systems: Lessons for a First Course, the follow-up to her popular Lessons in Mathematics: A Dynamic Approach, provides a set of tools that enable educators at the secondary and college levels to teach a one-semester or one-year course in System Dynamics modeling. Developed for beginning modelers, the lessons contained in this book can be used for a core curriculum or for independent study. Course materials meet National Science Education Standards (NSES) and National Council of Teachers of Mathematics (NCTM) standards and are out-of-the-box ready for use in your classroom today. Modeling has been used for years to help scientists and policy makers find solutions to complex problems. It is one of the most valuable and useful applications of mathematics. However, most models are difficult to understand and require significant mathematics to interpret. Systems Thinking software like Stella offers an opportunity to create visual models that actively engage students to study a wide variety of problems. Creating a model allows for “real-time” analysis and a more stimulating environment to glean insights. Modeling Dynamic Systems: Lessons for a First Course provides an easy-to-use set of teaching materials that are paced gently enough for students to learn to create dynamic models using the Stella software. This book is the teacher's edition and includes a download containing PDFs of all student exercises, as well as the save-disabled version of the Stella software that can be used by students to complete the exercises.
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Why do we continue to make such little progress addressing our many pressing social concerns like homelessness, hunger, drug addiction and environmental threats? Is it the way we think? Find out answers to these questions in An Introduction to Systems Thinking with STELLA.
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Fish Banks is a role-playing, board game in which teams of players manage and operate their own fishing companies. Players step into the role of captain and crew competing against other fishing companies. Each fishing company begins with equal cash, fishing boats, and technology. They then strategize to buy and sell ships, select fishing locations, and manage their fleets. Their decisions combine with the uncertainties of weather, fish catch, and the decisions of competitors to determine whether they can success to make a living without depleting the available fish. This complete set includes everything necessary to play the game: game board, game box, ships, and online access to an introductory video, game software, slides, and user’s manual.
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In 1972, three scientists from MIT created a computer model that analyzed global resource consumption and production. Their results shocked the world and created stirring conversation about global 'overshoot,' or resource use beyond the carrying capacity of the planet. Preeminent environmental scientists Donnella Meadows, Jorgen Randers, and Dennis Meadows teamed up again to update and expand their original findings in The Limits to Growth: The 30 Year Global Update. The original book Limits to Growth concluded that: “If the present growth trends in world population, industrialization, pollution, food production, and resource depletion continue unchanged, the limits to growth on this planet will be reached sometime within the next one hundred years. The most probable result will be a rather sudden and uncontrollable decline in both population and industrial capacity.” Meadows, Randers, and Meadows are international environmental leaders recognized for their groundbreaking research into early signs of wear on the planet. Citing climate change as the most tangible example of our current overshoot, the scientists now provide us with an updated scenario and a plan to reduce our needs to meet the carrying capacity of the planet. Over the past three decades, population growth and global warming have forged on with a striking semblance to the scenarios laid out by the World3 computer model in the original Limits to Growth. While Meadows, Randers, and Meadows do not make a practice of predicting future environmental degradation, they offer an analysis of present and future trends in resource use, and assess a variety of possible outcomes. In many ways, the message contained in Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update is a warning. Overshoot cannot be sustained without collapse. But, as the authors are careful to point out, there is reason to believe that humanity can still reverse some of its damage to Earth if it takes appropriate measures to reduce inefficiency and waste. Written in refreshingly accessible prose, this book is a long anticipated revival of some of the original voices in the growing chorus of sustainability. Limits to Growth: The 30 Year Update is a work of stunning intelligence that will expose for humanity the hazy but critical line between human growth and human development.
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A group of enterprising penguins with a yen for juicy clams teams up with some walrus colleagues to harvest aseemingly endless supply for all. The good news attracts penguins and walruses from icebergs far and wide who join in the work and the delectation. But on the way to establishing a clam lovers' paradise, territorial skirmishes arise, clumsy walruses flatten penguins, and confusion reigns. Can the penguins discover the hidden connections that have turned spiraling success into frustration and social upheaval? Only when they learn to see what is invisible are they able to stop their paradise from unraveling and take steps to creat sustainable prosperity. The Tip of the Iceberg vividly illustrates how organizations can be trapped by systems when they fail to understand them. The story and discussion guide will help managers sort through the complexity of surface-level events and discover how to take effective actions that create the results they desire.
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A must-have resource for any parent or educator who wants to help children think about interconnections in our world. Each chapter focuses on a favorite children's picture book--and reveals the systems principle inherent in the story, general points for discussion, illustrations of key concepts, and questions to spark conversation for both younger and older readers.
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Lessons in Mathematics: A Dynamic Approach by Diana Fisher provides a set of materials that can be used to supplement current curriculum for Algebra I, Algebra II, Pre-Calculus and Calculus classes. Students build understanding of abstract mathematical functions (such as linear, quadratic, and exponential) by creating models using the Stella software. They then can make use of the software's simulation capabilities to explore solutions to real-world problems. Materials meet National Science Education Standards (NSES) and National Council of Teachers of Mathematics (NCTM) standards and are out-of-the-box ready for use in your classroom today. If you’re a science teacher, you’ll find many of the lessons contained in this book provide a powerful vehicle for explaining basic science concepts. The motion lessons found throughout the book, for example, can be used to introduce, reinforce, or supplement concepts taught in the physical science and/or physics curriculum. Similarly, the population dynamics lessons can be used in the context of many classes in the life sciences. Other lessons such as “Contagious Diseases” and “Lead in the Body” offer real-world case studies that are highly applicable to the more mathematically rigorous classes in the sciences. This book is the teacher's edition and includes a download containing PDFs of all student exercises, as well as the save-disabled version of the Stella software that can be used by students to complete the exercises.
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A group of enterprising penguins with a yen for juicy clams teams up with some walrus colleagues to harvest aseemingly endless supply for all. The good news attracts penguins and walruses from icebergs far and wide who join in the work and the delectation. But on the way to establishing a clam lovers' paradise, territorial skirmishes arise, clumsy walruses flatten penguins, and confusion reigns. Can the penguins discover the hidden connections that have turned spiraling success into frustration and social upheaval? Only when they learn to see what is invisible are they able to stop their paradise from unraveling and take steps to creat sustainable prosperity. The Tip of the Iceberg vividly illustrates how organizations can be trapped by systems when they fail to understand them. The story and discussion guide will help managers sort through the complexity of surface-level events and discover how to take effective actions that create the results they desire.
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This book is for anyone who has ever wondered how a child develops language, thought, and knowledge. Before this classic appeared, little was known of the way children think. In 1923, however, Jean Piaget, the most important developmental psychologist of the twentieth century, took the psychological world by storm with The Language and Thought of the Child. Applying for the first time the insights of social psychology and psychoanalysis to the observation of children, he uncovered the ways in which a child actively constructs his or her understanding of the world through language. The book has since been a source of inspiration and guidance to generations of parents and teachers. While its conclusions remain contentious to this very day, few can deny the huge debt we owe to this pioneering work in our continuing attempts to understand the minds of the child.
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In this newest volume in Pegasus' bestselling Toolbox Reprint Series, Barry Richmond demystifies the "thinking" in systems thinking. The volume opens with an overview of the seven skills necessary to become a true systems thinker. Then, each two-page spread takes an in-depth look at an individual skill. The seven thinking skills--dynamic, system-as-cause, forest, operational, closed-loop, quantitative, and scientific--are also mapped onto the four-step process that underpins the systems thinking method, so you know when to best employ each skill. Includes plenty of examples of the skills in action, tips for honing the skills, and diagrams to capture key concepts.
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Organizations around the world today are struggling to stay ahead of the pack. With its fanciful illustrations and deliciously wicked humor, Outlearning the Wolves is the story of an organization that might resemble yours--complete with bad habits, nagging vulnerabilities, and resignation to the status quo. A flock of sheep, fearful of the wolves' mythical cleverness, is initially debilitated by fragmentation and false assumptions. But as the sheep build a culture for learning, the contributions of each individual are utilized in strikingly new and productive ways. By working together, the flock develops the capability for dramatic learning that ensures it can thrive while facing fresh challenges. Outlearning the Wolves presents a powerful metaphor for understanding the issues organizations face when they realize they must learn how to learn differently. Any organization seeking to build both a rewarding workplace and a thriving enterprise should introduce these ideas to every worker--from the front line to the boardroom. Outlearning the Wolves is a unique resource for teachers and learners across a broad range of settings. Included is a concise guide to the story's essential points--a ready-made lesson outline, perfect for directing group learning.
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The Lemming Dilemma introduces the crucial organizational learning discipline of personal mastery--the evolving process of self-awareness that enables people to create new possibilities for themselves and their organizations. In this engaging story, Emmy the lemming wakes up to her own purpose and vision, and defies the age-old urge to follow the other lemmings off the cliff. But Emmy goes far beyond a mere rejection of tradition. Through her own surprising choices, she inspires other lemmings to wake up to their missions and to pursue their deepest aims and visions--both individually and collectively. In this simply told story are profound lessons about what it means to be the leader of your own life and to share your vision with others. Includes questions for reflection and group discussion.
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The latest volume of the acclaimed Toolbox Reprint Series, Daniel Kim takes a deeper look at the “signature” patterns of behavior associated with each systems archetype. For each archetype, Kim explains through a detailed graph how the associated behavior plays out over time, explores the special role that delays play in the archetypes storyline, and suggests tips for managing the behavior. This volume offers the most advanced, up-to-date thinking about the archetypes and is an ideal resource for readers already familiar with Systems Archetypes I and Systems Archetypes II.
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Today's leading authority on the subject of this text is the author, MIT Standish Professor of Management and Director of the System Dynamics Group, John D. Sterman. Sterman's objective is to explain, in a true textbook format, what system dynamics is, and how it can be successfully applied to solve business and organizational problems. System dynamics is both a currently utilized approach to organizational problem solving at the professional level, and a field of study in business, engineering, and social and physical sciences.
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Systems Thinking, combines systems theory and interactive design to provide an operational methodology for defining problems and designing solutions in an environment increasingly characterized by chaos and complexity. This new edition has been updated to include all new chapters on self-organizing systems as well as holistic, operational, and design thinking. The book covers recent crises in financial systems and job markets, the housing bubble, and environment, assessing their impact on systems thinking. A companion website is available at interactdesign.com. This volume is ideal for senior executives as well as for chief information/operating officers and other executives charged with systems management and process improvement. It may also be a helpful resource for IT/MBA students and academics.
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Follow Boogie the caveman on his hilarious journey of discovery into his own and other's hidden beliefs (mental models). With it's detailed discussion guide, Shadows is a must have resource for any organization on it own quest for clear and open communications.
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Feedback Thought in Social Science and Systems Theory is an original investigation into the history of an idea and a way of thinking in the social sciences – the loop concept underlying the notions of feedback and circular causality. After tracing the concept’s historical roots, George P. Richardson argues that modern usage of feedback thinking in the social sciences divides rather dramatically into two main lines of development, which proceeded from 1945 through at least the 1970s in considerable ignorance of each other.
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Modeling the Environment is the first introductory textbook for a technique of rapidly growing importance. It requires little or no mathematical background, and is appropriate for undergraduate environmental students as well as professionals new to modelling. Developed from the author's own introductory course, it is classroom-tested and represents an important contribution to the field of system dynamics.Modeling techniques that allow managers and researchers to see in advance the consequences of actions and policies are becoming increasingly important to environmental management. The models produced are vital analytical tools that aid the policy-setting and implementation process, and help us to understand how environmental systems respond to management interventions.Modeling the Environment is a basic introduction to one of the most widely known and used modeling techniques, system dynamics. The book is designed to build the skills of students as they progress from learning fundamental ideas to constructing models of increasing complexity. Written in a clear and comprehensible style, the book: presents basic concepts of modeling using system dynamics illustrates the mechanics of model construction through a range of working models offers a rich array of exercises for students to use in applying the principles and techniques described in the text walks students through the design and application of models of specific types of environmental systemsIn addition, the book contains more than 300 figures and model illustrations, and provides a guide to an interactive website where students can use the text to "navigate" management flight simulators models of both real and hypothetical systems developed by the author. The book also contains appendixes that help students review the necessary math, and which provide additional concepts and exercises for further study.
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Systems Thinking, Systems Practice "Whether by design, accident or merely synchronicity, Checkland appears to have developed a habit of writing seminal publications near the start of each decade which establish the basis and framework for systems methodology research for that decade." Hamish Rennie, Journal of the Operational Research Society, 1992 Thirty years ago Peter Checkland set out to test whether the Systems Engineering (SE) approach, highly successful in technical problems, could be used by managers coping with the unfolding complexities of organizational life. The straightforward transfer of SE to the broader situations of management was not possible, but by insisting on a combination of systems thinking strongly linked to real-world practice Checkland and his collaborators developed an alternative approach - Soft Systems Methodology (SSM) - which enables managers of all kinds and at any level to deal with the subtleties and confusions of the situations they face. This work established the now accepted distinction between 'hard' systems thinking, in which parts of the world are taken to be 'systems' which can be 'engineered', and 'soft' systems thinking in which the focus is on making sure the process of inquiry into real-world complexity is itself a system for learning. Systems Thinking, Systems Practice (1981) and Soft Systems Methodology in Action (1990) together with an earlier paper Towards a Systems-based Methodology for Real-World Problem Solving (1972) have long been recognized as classics in the field. Now Peter Checkland has looked back over the three decades of SSM development, brought the account of it up to date, and reflected on the whole evolutionary process which has produced a mature SSM. SSM: A 30-Year Retrospective, here included with Systems Thinking, Systems Practice closes a chapter on what is undoubtedly the most significant single research programme on the use of systems ideas in problem solving. Now retired from full-time university work, Peter Checkland continues his research as a Leverhulme Emeritus Fellow.
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Does your organization focus too much on the short term? Do you often use quick fixes? Do you find yourself saying; “We’ve been in this mess before?” Systems Archetype Basics; the second volume in The Pegasus Workbook Series; introduces you to eight systems archetypes—recurring systemic “stories” that crop up in all organizations. Like Systems Thinking Basics; this new resource offers detailed explanations; examples; and practice activities to help you recognize the archetypes and intervene. Use Systems Archetype Basics to address the most pressing challenges of organizational life today.
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This book and CD-ROM package integrates the use of STELLA software into the teaching of health, nutrition and physiology, and may be used on its own in nutrition and physiology courses, or can serve as a supplement to introduce the role that simulation modelling can play. The author presents key subjects ranging from the theory of metabolic control, through weight regulation to bone metabolism, and gives readers the tools to simulate these using the STELLA software. Topics include methods for simulation of gene expression, a multi-stage model of tumour development, theories of ageing, circadian rhythms and physiological time, as well as a model for managing weight loss and preventing obesity.
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Systems Thinking Basics is a self-study, skill-building resource designed to introduce you to the power of systems thinking tools. With an emphasis on behavior over time graphs and causal loop diagrams, this workbook guides you step by step through: Recognizing systems and understanding the importance of systems thinking Interpreting and creating behavior over time graphs and causal loop diagrams Applying and practicing systems thinking day-to-day Each of the book's six main sections contains a wealth of examples from the business world, as well as learning activities that reinforce concepts and provide you with the opportunity and space to practice. An array of appendices offers: Extra practice activities A summary of key points and suggested responses to the learning activities A table showing the "palette" of systems thinking tools available A glossary of systems thinking terms A list of additional resources A summary of the systems archetypes The many diagrams within the book clarify concepts and visually reinforce key principles. Systems Thinking Basics is ideal for aspiring systems thinkers eager to try their hand at using these powerful tools
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Billibonk and the Thorn Patch is a compelling story that is bound to appeal to readers of all ages. In this engaging fable, Billibonk the elephant and his friends discover the interdependent nature of life in the jungle of Knith. Together, the elephants, mice, and monkeys hone their problem-solving skills and--after much adventure (and a few misunderstandings!)--learn the value of mutual respect and thinking systemically. No fable is complete without a moral...and this fable has many. Key lessons featured in the story include: - understanding mutual interdependencies - focusing on the long-term view - getting to the root of the problem - recognizing our own role in difficult situations Join Billibonk and the rest of the Knith gang in their jouney of discovery--but beware what may be lurking in the thorn patch!
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Billibonk the elephant and Frankl, his curious mouse mentor, team up and follow the looping trail of clues that lead to the heart of the mystery in the delightfully instructive fable Billibonk & the big itch.
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This book is about increasing team performance. It focuses on building system dynamics models when tackling a mix of interrelated strategic problems to enhance team learning, foster consensus, and create commitment. The book is intended to be applied in the organizations of today. As the "command and control" organization evolves into one of decision-making teams, so these teams have become the critical building blocks upon which the performance of the organization depends. The team members face an increased complexity of decision making with the interrelation of several strategic problems. What this means is that people have different views of the situation and will define problems differently. However, research shows that this can in fact be very productive if and when people learn from each other in order to build a shared perspective. Learning in this way might prove to be the only sustainable competitive advantage for organizations in the future. As a result, team leaders want to create "learning teams" and are confronted with issues such as how to: * create a situation where people doubt their ideas rather than stubbornly cling to dearly held views * create a learning atmosphere rather than trying to "win" the discussion * create a shared understanding of a problem in a team * foster consensus and create commitment with a strategic decision * facilitate Group Model Building Those who will benefit most from Group Model Building: Facilitating Team Learning Using System Dynamics are those who are familiar with systems thinking or organizational learning, or those who are working in groups and are coming up against the common difficulties.
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Whether you are new to systems thinking or merely need a guide to available tools, this collection introduces you to dynamic, structural, and computer-based tools – from stocks and flows to causal loop diagrams and management flight simulators.
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Toolbox Reprint Series Systems Archetypes II Using Systems Archetypes to Take Effective Action More than just a “how-to” guide; this companion guide to our bestselling Systems Archetypes I provides a grounded approach to problem diagnosis and intervention that can lead to effective action. Learn how to use the archetypes for diagnosing a problem; planning high-leverage interventions; and constructing theories about the roots of stubborn organizational problems.
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Senge's best-selling The Fifth Discipline led Business Week to dub him the "new guru" of the corporate world; here he offers executives a step-by-step guide to building "learning organizations" of their own.
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Systems Archetypes I helps you understand the structure and story line of the archetypes–those “common stories” in systems thinking. Each two-page description leads you through an archetype and outlines ways to use the archetype to address your own business issues.
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Sorunları parçalara ayırmaya, dünyayı bölümlemeye daha çok küçük yaşlardan alıştırılırız. Her ne kadar bu, karmaşık işler ve konularla daha kolay baş edebilmemizi sağlarsa da karşılığında görünmeyen, büyük bir bedel öderiz. Bundan böyle eylemlerimizin sonuçlarını göremez olur, daha ileri bir aşamayla bağlantısını kurma yeteneğimizi de yitiririz. Resmi, bir bütün halinde görme çabasına girdiğimizde ise zihnimizde parçaları yeniden bir araya getirmeye, tüm parçaları sıralayıp düzenlemeye çalışırız. Oysa bu boşuna bir çabadır, kırık bir aynanın parçalarını birleştirerek gerçek görüntüye ulaşamayız. Beşinci Disiplin’de sunulan araçlar ve düşünceler, dünyanın birbirinden ayrı, birbiriyle ilişkisi bulunmayan güçlerden yaratıldığı yolundaki yanılsamayı yıkmak içindir. Bu yanılsamadan vazgeçtiğimiz gün “öğrenen örgütler”i kurabiliriz. Bu tür örgütlenmelerde kişiler istedikleri sonuçlara ulaşabilmek için kapasitelerini sürekli genişletirler. Yeni ve coşkulu düşünme tarzları beslenir, kolektif özlemlere gem vurulmaz. İnsanlar, sürekli olarak nasıl birlikte öğrenilebileceğini öğrenirler. Fortune dergisinin bir sayısında denildiği gibi, “liderlik hakkındaki eski, yıpranmış düşüncelerinizi unutun. 1990’ların en başarılı şirketi, öğrenen örgüt olarak adlandırılan birşey olacaktır.” Rakiplerimizden daha hızlı öğrenme yeteneğine sahip olmamız, tek rekabet avantajımız olabilir. Dünya kendi içinde daha bağlantılı hale geldiği ve daha karmaşık ve dinamik özellikler iş dünyasında ağır bastığı sürece, çalışmak daha “öğrenmeci” olmalıdır. Beşinci Disiplin, her yöneticinin başucu kitabı olmaya adaydır.
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An MIT Professor's pathbreaking book on building "learning organizations" -- corporations that overcome inherent obstacles to learning and develop dynamic ways to pinpoint the threats that face them and to recognize new opportunities. Not only is the learning organization a new source of competitive advantage, it also offers a marvelously empowering approach to work, one which promises that, as Archimedes put it, "with a lever long enough... single-handed I can move the world."
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A basic text in system dynamics, Study Notes has been adopted for such courses as environmental studies, electrical engineering, introduction to system dynamics, and computer science. Part I focuses on simple structures and describes elements of positive and negative feedback loops; Part II reinforces material in the first part with eight exercises that emphasize the relationship between structure and behavior; Part III contains advanced exercises in model conceptualization and analysis. Included are modeling exercises on the life cycle of a residential community.
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Kimde: Emre Göktepe
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The Electronic Oracle: Computer Models and Social Decisions investigates the practice and impact of systems analysis and computer modeling, particularly as applied to social policy. The authors explore the nature of models, the biases and hidden assumptions of different modeling methods, the pragmatics of the modeling process, and the impact of modeling on the real world. These issues are approached through detailed case studies of nine models designed to address issues of economic development, resources and the environment. This book compares the pros and cons of the modeling paradigms used to understand the complex interactions that influence the behavior of social systems: System Dynamics, econometrics, linear programming, input/output analysis, and optimization. The authors explore why so many modeling projects fail and present guidelines for improvement. The methods developed in the book to expose hidden assumptions, to make undiscussable values and biases discussable, remain central to anyone seeking to have an impact on the real world.
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Kimde: Emre Göktepe
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Elements of the Systems Dynamics Method explores how models of dynamic systems are made. The authors give practical advice about choosing a problem that will yield interesting results, what to include in the model and what to leave out, the desirable amount of detail, selecting parameter values, knowing whether the model is “good,” and how to make the model interesting to other people.
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Kimde: Emre Göktepe
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System Dynamics, as a field of insight and inquiry, offers a new way to think about our organizations. It provides strategic language and tools to support lasting, effective company-wide improvement. How do you apply the principles and tools of System Dynamics to management, business strategy, modeling, planning, and forecasting? The contributing authors of this anthology Managerial Applications of System Dynamics address this question in essays on complex corporate models, workload fluctuations, the "Honeywell experience," the growth strategies of a trucking company, organizational change, organizational strategy, aging organizations, weekly stock prices, long-range strategic planning, and many other timely topics.
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Kimde: Emre Göktepe
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The publication of Jay W. Forrester’s Urban Dynamics in 1969 introduced a new perspective on analyzing urban problems. The book attracted attention worldwide and stirred a great deal of controversy and debate. Introduction to Urban Dynamics provides a step-by-step approach to understanding both the key elements of the System Dynamics modeling methodology and the ideas and concepts introduced in Urban Dynamics. It explains the complexity of the urban system by examining simpler urban subsystems one at a time. The book contains eleven urban models. Each model is slightly more complex and realistic than the one before it. For example, Chapter 1 describes a simple model of unlimited economic expansion. Chapter 2 modifies that model to portray growth within a fixed land area, such as a central-city area. Each chapter illustrates some principles of urban behavior and discusses the model in terms of real events and policy issues. The book shows how the three major concepts of urban dynamics – land use, attractiveness, and aging and obsolescence – provide a framework to view the behavior of the entire city. Organized as a textbook with practice exercises and suggested readings within each chapter, the book is aimed at students of systems analysis and city planners. The reader of Introduction to Urban Dynamics, when finished, “should be able to visualize a city as a unified system that can be managed to improve the quality of life for its residents.”
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Kimde: Emre Göktepe
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Jay W. Forrester (1918 – 2016) was a pioneering American computer engineer and systems scientist. He was a professor at MIT and later the MIT Sloan School of Management. Forrester is credited with being one of the inventors of magnetic core memory, the creator of the first computer animation, and the father of the field of System Dynamics – a computer-aided approach for strategy and policy design. This collection includes provocative discussions of issues critical to manufacturing managers, including production-distribution systems, inventory and in-process order corrections, corporate growth patterns, and the reduction of research costs.
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This second volume is a record of urban dynamics research through 1974, and offers a treatment of issues in urban modeling. It responds to many initial criticisms of Urban Dynamics, presents further results of applying the methodology in Lowell, Massachusetts, and describes model extensions to account for land rezoning, housing abandonment, and city-suburb interactions.
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Since 1969, the urban dynamics research program at MIT has focused on studying the long-term processes of urban development and the determinants of urban growth and decay.
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World Dynamics represents a call to arms against this futility. It shows the opportunity for bringing the world of man into equilibrium with the forces of his environment while there still remains time and maneuvering room. Man throughout history has focused on growth in population, standard of living, and geographical boundaries. But in the fixed space of the world, growth must in time give way to equilibrium. Malthus had postulated food supply as the ultimate limiting factor, but Professor Forrester suggests that pollution, crowding, and depletion of resources can play equally critical roles. Industrialization may be a more fundamental threat than population. Due to limitations of the environment, the entire world may not be able to rise to the standard of living that has been set as an example by the industrialized countries. Goals and aspirations of all countries must be drastically readjusted as growth and expansion give way to world equilibrium. The book is the first step towards adapting the principles of System Dynamics to the behavior of the forces involved in the transition from growth to world equilibrium. A stable enduring world equilibrium may require a combination of social, economic, and technical changes that include such counterintuitive policies as reducing the present emphasis on food production and industrialization Since its publication, the book has received world-wide notice and has catalyzed debate over the necessity of achieving world equilibrium. In this second edition, an additional chapter discusses the importance of social limits to growth.
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Why do price and production of commodities fluctuate? Is the cyclical behavior unique to each commodity or is it due to a common structure underlying all commodities? Can the influence of a new policy or institutional arrangement on the stability of commodity markets be predicted? Dynamics of Commodity Production Cycles addresses such questions. Economists, managers, investors, and government officials should benefit from this new theory of the structure and dynamics of commodity systems. Professor Meadows finds the classical Cobweb Theorem and its modifications inadequate representations of dynamic relationships in actual commodity systems. Employing the industrial dynamics methodology, he develops a general dynamic model of the economic, biological, technological, and psychological factors which lead to the instability of commodity systems. To verify the model and to show how the general theory applies to a specific commodity, the author reviews the literature on pork production in the United States. Values appropriate to the production and consumption of pork are obtained tor each parameter in the general model. The dynamic behavior of the resulting hog cycle model is similar to the observed four-year cycle. With appropriate managerial and biological coefficients, the model also yields the typical cattle and chicken cycles. Although animal commodities are used as examples, the general model is applicable to mineral and vegetable commodities as well. The general dynamic model of commodity production cycles is especially useful for computer simulation. It permits experiments to test alternative policies and structural changes and their effect on the stability of a commodity system. The results of several such experiments present surprising implications for stabilization policies. The work is discussed which must precede the design of policies and institutions for commodity stabilization.
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In Principles of Systems, Professor Forrester explains the basic principles behind system behavior. He introduces the concepts of structure and dynamic behavior that were first introduced in his prior books, Industrial Dynamics (1961) and Urban Dynamics (1971). Due to the general nature and wide applicability of the principles discussed, this book has been adopted by numerous colleges and universities as an introduction to teaching System Dynamics in many multidisciplinary courses on urban, environmental, corporate, and other complex social systems. The accompanying workbook also allows students to gauge their learning throughout the book. The book serves on its own as well as being a complement to other books on the nature of social systems. Professor Forrester wrote many widely known papers in engineering and management.
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Industrial Dynamics is the cornerstone of System Dynamics and must be experienced by any serious systems thinker. What makes Industrial Dynamics—or any book—a classic? Timelessness. Although it was first published more than 50 years ago, Industrial Dynamics is durably relevant for those interested in how social systems work. Nothing in this book is outdated. Because systemic problems are complicated and messy, the book provides comprehensive examples in problem definition, simulation model-building and ways to judge the quality of results. Its principles apply to understanding the role of policy and decision making in social systems as diverse as healthcare, finance, production-distribution, conflict resolution, the environment, and ecology. The creation of computer models to simulate system behavior does not require great mathematical ability, but there are skills to be developed and pitfalls to be avoided. Industrial Dynamics is written to lead the learner through the methodology from conceptualization through model formulation, testing, and analysis to implementation. The text is supplemented by fifteen brief appendices that tackle topics such as beginners’ difficulties, information smoothing and the limits of prediction. Systems planning is the tool of the responsible problem-solver to derive guiding principles for the future. The process begins with Industrial Dynamics.
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The Beer Game was developed to introduce students, managers and executives to concepts of System Dynamics. The purpose of the game is to illustrate the key principle that structure produces behavior. Players experience the pressures of playing a role in a complex system and can see long range effects during the course of the game. Each player participates as a member of a team that must meet its customers’ demands. The object of the game is to minimize the total cost for your team. This is a complete set.
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Kimde: Emre Göktepe
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